Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 17.178405 19.597912 22.204636 25.217975 28.601392 32.278996 36.574998
2025-01-19 12.862406 15.979915 19.600915 24.102440 29.532475 35.854232 43.753879
2025-01-26 11.288733 14.803394 19.083565 24.651131 31.670407 40.191761 51.282287
2025-02-02 10.132831 13.939593 18.773181 25.315022 33.885242 44.671799 59.208373
2025-02-09 8.938946 12.833512 17.965253 25.157721 34.902150 47.557584 65.134468
2025-02-16 7.896756 11.795197 17.110919 24.804306 35.551816 49.913142 70.409247
2025-02-23 7.179564 11.118668 16.659654 24.915316 36.770647 53.020999 76.781643
2025-03-02 6.620050 10.603552 16.371395 25.198823 38.200680 56.442968 83.711525
2025-03-09 6.074774 10.049759 15.966568 25.256155 39.271075 59.371611 90.047173
2025-03-16 5.519821 9.423886 15.393277 24.999706 39.831372 61.556114 95.373305
2025-03-23 5.144293 9.043972 15.157021 25.221552 41.094166 64.796549 102.365028
2025-03-30 4.929979 8.904503 15.279108 25.995636 43.227063 69.413481 111.604052
2025-04-06 4.504512 8.382108 14.759784 25.729474 43.744740 71.649025 117.412023
2025-04-13 3.925714 7.542527 13.653684 24.424203 42.513499 71.102411 118.872589
2025-04-20 3.751842 7.400821 13.704135 25.036788 44.420878 75.560709 128.385665
2025-04-27 3.598540 7.281472 13.780478 25.690683 46.421850 80.248996 138.464086
2025-05-04 3.331435 6.925041 13.410612 25.537682 47.036363 82.691629 144.979039
2025-05-11 3.058979 6.532846 12.944904 25.177271 47.260483 84.480135 150.469164
2025-05-18 2.876703 6.299984 12.751892 25.290511 48.308976 87.683433 158.445194
2025-05-25 2.731782 6.128539 12.659435 25.577685 49.673416 91.472469 167.559488
2025-06-01 2.569684 5.907025 12.454002 25.635884 50.618308 94.566568 175.592947
2025-06-08 2.383765 5.618379 12.095793 25.375881 50.955702 96.598504 181.842503
2025-06-15 2.266176 5.465281 11.993492 25.600788 52.200400 100.278642 191.127215